Soft landing in 2007 of real estate opportunities not to be missed

 Soft landing in 2007 of real estate opportunities not to be missed
1 26, when the State Council Development Research Center I worry mm for 2007 Chinese real estate market, we should be most wary of are > To prevent this kind of to stop the continued inflow of hot money coming from overseas; second pulled off hot money overseas shipments, the ability to quickly exit.
am very pleased that, on February 2, the Beijing Municipal Construction Commission and other departments jointly issued the and foreign individuals to buy real estate in the notice. transaction.
can be expected, as long as Overseas shipments of hot money pulled off quickly exit capacity hot urban real estate can be worked out as soon as possible and the implementation of relevant provisions of, because it is directly related to our financial security and stability.
began the current round of macro control in 2004, the beginning was the corrupt officials, unscrupulous businessmen and scholars composed of corruption and bribery , and this year, we really can not miss the chance again.
apology: As I am busy lately, forced to turned down a number of media interviews, once again express our deep apologies!
mm Zhang Lin Xiao on 2007/2/9
attached:
China, > the verge of bursting real estate bubble housing prices will return to the rational reporter Xie Lijia

abnormally high prices turn up as the city fell
have been relaxed, as predicted, but is more focused and lethal l r. 2007 Price Change across the country will vary, the actual purchasing power of the people that house prices in line with the city, housing prices will be with the local urban residents while the corresponding increase in incomes rise, but gains will not be much.
While those who do not abnormally high prices, but the actual purchasing power of the people beyond the city, in 2007 the price is up is down depends entirely on the local government, the central real estate macro policy implementation efforts. such as the implementation of policies in place , the price gains will certainly be slowed down significantly, or weak, or even bend down; such as the implementation of policies in place, and even to visible practicing hand prop the housing market, then it may still be up endless false.
those prices Excessive cities such as price earnings ratio more than 12:1 in the city, although no decline in 2006, but if the volume is so shrunken, then at some point in 2007, it is likely to turn up for the fall. < br> In fact, the price is extremely high in these cities, the big real estate bubble has been broken in a situation that had barrel. At this point, the price earnings ratio is too high, buyers of home-buyers are generally not affordable housing may be a (not including those rich people here that high-income earners, who already had housing); and investment buyers, this time is unlikely to achieve a minimum return on investment that the housing rental income.
This means that the city's housing is no longer an ideal investment target. the rest, that is, those speculators out. At this point, if the city's housing prices continue to rise, the maximum possible , is to enter the was staged last crazy.
Finally, those who fall 2005, the city has been opened, there is no rebound in 2006, the same will not rebound in 2007, it will further decline.
bubble about to burst < br> in these extremely high prices the city, signs of the real estate bubble about to burst already began to appear, therefore, house prices in 2007 will result in the whole fall.
in these signs, there are two most worthy vigilance. First, the Bank launched the In this surface,
. In an urban area power is cheap rent, they faced extremely high price of price decline has been completely wide open channel. > First, to further raise the deposit reserve rate hike .1 and 15, the central bank has raised the statutory deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, it is possible to further improve in the second quarter reserve, tightening credit scale. On the other hand, the central bank may again increase interest rates curb lending behavior, squeezing the real estate bubble.
Second, the central bank will organize a comprehensive inventory of real estate loans, troubleshoot problems, reiterated that the system, there will be a number of speculative real estate developers and real estate speculators who are Housing prices forced throw cash.
Third, the real estate industry will be rectifying the market order. First of all pre-conditions to improve the real estate business, against those who shortage of funds, sleight of hand tricks for developers. Lee developed the view that this large number of groups. The current measures are not capped mortgage sale is not open, it is estimated will be more strictly managed in 2007.
rather sell in recent months, the developer of the project did not fall price increase, in Shanghai The developers do not cut prices there is a kind of alliance, however weakly, comprehensive inventory of real estate developers hoarding land. Over the past year or so, the original full construction of idle land will increase the number of real estate market is conducive to lower prices.
Fourth, to improve local government will reiterate livelihood for the cause of the housing policy, housing prices fueled lost from threading back, so that the majority of ordinary people to have a housing policy objective of the government.
Fifth, affordable housing and the actual supply of low-rent housing volume will increase significantly. the government may draw on the housing system in Singapore and Hong Kong, established in 2007 specialized in affordable housing construction sector to develop affordable housing in line with the national system. a large number of affordable housing supply will push down home prices. < br> six is to combat money laundering through the buying behavior. Lee developed the view that the current fight against corruption and money laundering may be involved in the purchase of 15% -20% of households, if by encouraging and give rewards to expose the way to make most of the money-laundering return to the state treasury funds of corruption.
Seven is the introduction of property tax. May this year before the property tax-related provisions will be formally announced before the end of this year levy. which holds real estate speculators and owners of large units of housing constitutes more great pressure.
eight housing units are fully open. Guangzhou City has set a precedent, which is two years before many NPC deputies and CPPCC members agreed the proposal. unit of land with its own building, the planning, consistent with land use, This will bring the gospel group the housing needs of persons.
IX regulations the government regulate the introduction of fund-raising cooperative housing. The Government may be in the financing cooperative housing policy.
Ten is the government will introduce policies to combat speculation in real estate-related behavior, inhibition of inflated prices. such a way as not to tax investment in real estate who work the city limits on the sale of profit-making value added tax, etc..
Admittedly, in the context of regulation of real estate, housing prices in some cities, but the more the higher tone. real estate industry, local government, commercial banks, real estate developers, real estate investment (speculation) who share common interests. real estate is a high incidence of corruption, the corrupt government of corrupt officials and banks, prone areas.
the past year, with the central series of anti-corruption action unfolds, the ; Accordingly, bribe businessmen of the the interests of break, the resistance of macro-control will be reduced, prices in 2007 will return to the rational can look forward to.
guaranteed. control, the start of the corruption was the ; ups and downs hot money is pulled off overseas shipments, the ability to quickly exit.
If you can do these two points, China's real estate industry can still expect a soft landing.
2007: decline in housing prices is not a dream
reporter Zhou XS
Mr. Kwan has been a very confused to see a reporter, he throws a series of problems. In Beijing, reporters encountered such as Kwan really a lot of people now, they care about is also a common topic of confusion is that the Housing price problems.
2004, the former chief economist of Morgan Stanley predicted that the property market will collapse Mr. Xie Guozhong. Following Andy Xie, the 2005 Shanghai Yi Xianrong boasted house prices will fall 50%, Beijing will drop at least 30 %. Not long ago, another expert said that Beijing house prices will fall 25%. in a variety of voices behind the predicted decline in housing prices, housing prices continued to rise in recent years, many people such as Mr Kwan have been produced on the sound doubt.
So in the end of 2007 house prices will fall? China Economic Times carefully selected, interviewed several experts, or let us listen to their claims.
real estate appreciation is a myth < br> King, director of the Central Party School of Economics Tokyo consecutive three articles recently, the housing market and criticizing remarks about some of the errors.
But long term, it certainly house prices fall no doubt. the explanation is: Although the state has adopted a policy that expressly limits the type area, increase the supply of low-end housing, but the difficulty is not a building-block building, land acquisition 盖楼, a few years time, supply and demand pattern will not change.
expert analysis, China's per capita life expectancy of 72 years, then in 2015, died of natural causes every year the number of 26 million, 16 million new births every year net decrease of 10 million. factors. population decline, housing demand will drop. onwards, each year 2,600 people will leave the labor series of .10 years, the number of retirees will exceed 200 million. king Tokyo that the social burden of labor service will not light,UGG boots clearance, and the elderly spend their remaining years, the savings will not be broken used to buy a house. On the contrary, many elderly people after retirement, but also replaced the original small home ward, Beijing has been signs of the moment, the Western countries are also common, if so, will reduce the demand for housing.
again, Urbanization to accelerate. King cautioned Tokyo, The Central Government has implicit and urbanization should rely on the county. Therefore, farmers driving into the city only the housing needs of small and medium towns, on the city, will be minimal. And, now developed countries, there Most of these people live the city money, if China is also the day, major cities, demand for housing will be greatly reduced. Wang Tokyo are described from the supply side. He said that according to previous statistics, there were 32,618 real estate companies, as long as these companies are not out of business, create the house each year, the number should be considerable. If the supply diminished, 10 After years of declining demand, prices will fall no doubt.
20 years ago, much lower; Hong Kong's housing prices, but also significantly less than 10 years ago. l r is not the iron law of real estate appreciation. HS Chaikin water view is that in 2007 the general trend of the housing market ups and downs, but the average house prices will fall.
to Beijing, for example, Chaikin water analysis: As the central step of the real estate industry The macro-control efforts, tightening the supply of land and capital, the next few years, the growth rate of real estate development and investment, increase the amount of people purchase loans, real estate sales will decline; and as the hands of developers have not yet completed the development of transfer a lot of land area (such as According to statistics, as of the first half of 2006, Beijing, 80 million square meters of land still held in the hands of developers), very large area of real estate under construction, open houses return to work area, the completion of the area, housing supply will greatly increased the momentum of rising house prices will be curbed.
Chaikin water in particular talked about the property tax, even though the channel from the public understanding of, the property tax levy is currently no specific timetable, but the water that its market Chaikin will have a huge impact. l r speculation enthusiasm of those people a little money quickly to buy a house r. irrational buyers will be greatly reduced, the real estate consumer will be suppressed, the market will also reduce the heat. regulation of the housing market is the biggest highlight of the government to improve housing security system. It is noteworthy that, house prices rose faster in the first-tier cities Beijing, Guangzhou and other invariably increase the affordable housing construction, Beijing 2007, the supply of affordable housing plans amount will be doubled.
Beijing Normal University, Research Institute of Economic and Resources Management Zhang Qi told reporters in China Economic Times, forecasts of housing prices has taken the practice into two. Zhang Qi that the large size, low-density luxury residential (such as luxury apartments, residential villas, etc.) price will also be the future should be a substantial increase in the average house price decline will occur.
Zhang Qi said that average house prices will fall There are three determinants: First, the current price increase already high; the second is that not only Beijing and other cities, housing prices nationwide are rising a twisted; Third, the government had introduced a number of regulatory policy actually served to promote The role of housing prices, policies and the effects of policies requires a change in the process of adjustment, but the final demand will decline, prices have come down.
rise in housing prices is likely to remain low density. impact, and to some extent, even down home prices curb price rise is expected after 2008, prices will tend to return to the rational. At this point, Chaikin water views and Zhang Qi almost identical.
Chaikin water said that with the adjustment of housing supply structure, the implementation of land supply affordable housing, low-rent housing and limit housing supply will be significantly increased.
decreased to some extent. Seen in this light, not the dream of falling prices in 2007, house prices can only rise and not fall to the myth challenged.
prices are generally put down immediately
reporter Zhou XS
extent, depend on expectations about future prices. Wang, after Tokyo's article is published, readers echo everywhere, mixed. critics of the view that house prices fell too far away 10 years later, that the mean did not say, is nonsense.
reason, anxious to buy a house, who would have the patience to wait 10 years? is a good question, worthy of answer, so he she wrote an article, Wang told the China Economic Times Tokyo reporters, said that this is his profits are Geshandaniu asset price is equal to the discounted expected return of the assets, to reveal the reason why today's real estate investment continues unabated, the price rise, an important reason is that people are optimistic about the future price expectations.
example, the value of an apple tree How much? Fisher said, which is independent of the original cost of planting apple trees, but by how much the tree will bring benefits to give the buyer. assumes that 100 yuan per year income, the discount rate (bank rate) 5%, then the apple tree The price is 2000 yuan, if the income each year only 10 yuan, then the tree is only worth the price of 200 yuan.
now, people buy property there are only two motives: first, to their own homes, the second is to investment money. as self-occupied consumption, prices set by supply and demand of course, needless to repeat them. and real estate for investment, the price set by the property's future earnings. Tokyo, said the king, understanding this, should not be difficult to understand the future housing price of housing today.
or, how to spend it to buy high? ; But he also believes that consideration should be given to the housing supply and demand.
concern is that, for the industry as a more general point of view mm prices by supply and demand decisions, Zhang Qi was questioned this. housing needs are reasonable? What exactly is reasonable and what is unreasonable, not to distinguish. The fact is, the real needs of ordinary people's living rooms mm, basic housing consumption needs are not met, and large family homes, high-grade Housing in general is excess. , .
bear the brunt of the real estate business. king of Tokyo said that, as developers, investors make money only natural to strive for maximum profit, of course, do not want prices to fall. often the case, they will use the media to attempt to mislead, said real estate will be greatly appreciated in order to mislead the people to chase. ? After all, is worried that consumers form price expectations. down, direct damage to the developers, but banks are tied up at the dry line. that large numbers, bank loans to developers of up to 3 trillion, if the developer does not make money, the banks received loans will be delayed indefinitely. more terrible is that if housing prices drop, developers bankrupt, banks will be involved, even if the pledged property to get back some, but prices fall, banks must Debu credit loss. Tokyo said the king, after all, real estate has become a mainstay of the local economy. the development of housing industry, not only to boost GDP growth and financial standing to the credit also fast. significant income, high prices, land transfer fees are high, taxes are more . From that perspective, housing prices, the local government is the biggest beneficiary. for their own interests, local governments do not want to falling house prices.
Tokyo, said the king, do not underestimate the energy of these parties, they will do everything possible stop falling prices. Although irreversible long-term trend of falling house prices, but have their boycott, the time will be delayed drop in home prices. The problem is still the focus of the central government's determination. , the bank is the key, pull the body of a launch. as long as the central bank ordered commercial banks to recover overdue loans to real estate developers to afford to go on fighting, the local government to help drive, but also less than a long whip. After all, economic laws can not be beat, and the market carry the death, after all, is not the answer. Who jumped to buy? expensive real estate lonely at the top
reporter Xiao-Xia Wang
million square meters more than the project opened, most developers are creating a momentum to attract everyone's attention at their own expense. Yes, but only a handful of ordinary residential number.
who r, whether enough of this huge market in the crazy 高档房 r l divide it? sets.
jumped Who bought?
at a high level. journalists to two real estate case to illustrate the end of .2006, at the Beijing International Trade Center in the exhibitions of the winter show season, located 200 meters southeast of the official park official Bridge Park Project No. 8 buyers who make a lot of heart though, but its high 15,800 yuan / square meter allows the people balk at the price.
reporters in Beijing Real Estate Transaction Management online to see the project in early 2006 will sell for 10,500 yuan / square meter, but then, the project in one year prices three times within. According to the focus of the price of real estate records show the history of network, the official Garden 8 June 2006 rose to 12,000 yuan / square meter, in August rose to 15,000 yuan / square meter, in August rose to 15,800 after yuan / square meter, a year rose by 5,000 yuan / square meter.
At the same time, Beijing is located within the street toward the project Xiangfu He Feng, an opening in August 2001, when the price is about 9,000 / square meters, but until 2005, the project has not sold out. Later, the second phase of the project began to push the market, in the case were to be replaced on the promotion after one, two mixed sales. to report to 2006, the project's average price of a house has risen to 13,000 yuan / square meter, two average price of 15,000 yuan / square meter. Recently, this reporter received the news that the final phase of the housing project The sales price is 20,000 yuan / square meter, while the three price to be determined.
If the skyrocketing prices of these two projects but may still be some people for their in 高档房, sales to less ideal. A survey found that outward Street, Chaoyang District, Beijing Central Park Phase III, has signed up online display of 60 sets, 13% turnover rate. flourished in West City Street, Huarong Street apartment, online display only 10 sets of contract volume, turnover rate of less than one percent. It is understood that such high prices in 2006, but in very low volume market share in Beijing, nearly 高档房 into. < br> Many people are waiting and watching.
prop up the market not a Chun-Ping Li, chairman of marketing planning that, in the upscale residential a certain degree of weakness is a trend, higher, because the market value at the same rate, the unit profit of 10,000 yuan of the house will certainly be higher than the 5,000 yuan price of the house; in investment-grade residential customers generally more than 50% of the Shanghai, Beijing, at least 20% -30% of individual a higher proportion of projects.
currently in Beijing, Shanghai, housing prices have risen to a certain high level, getting smaller and smaller space for profitable investment, many investors and customers slowly out of the two markets. At the same time, 2006 September to restrict foreigners who purchase policies, but also to tourists in the high-end residential greatly reduced.
; Beijing Jingwei Times Real Estate Brokerage Co., Ltd. Deputy General Manager Su told reporters in Beijing a lot of people outside the hot zone has been regarded as the main target customer group. to the previous volume of view, a number of projects outside the core area ratio of people to buy is very high. But the Faced with these problems, the prices can   very long? high prices. the sale price of 35,000 yuan / square meters of Central Park Phase III, for example, the actual transaction price of 25,000 yuan / square meter. reporter under the Beijing Real Estate Transaction Management Network, and find that a considerable number of high-grade actual transaction prices are lower than the opening of the project.